000
FXUS62 KJAX 060243
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

.UPDATE...AREA 00Z SOUNDING GENERALLY SHOW WARMING ALOFT PAST 24
HRS AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM TX TO OHIO VALLEY REACHING SPEEDS OF
ABOUT 180 KT. AT SFC...STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS ERN TN TO NRN
GA AND SW INTO LA. THE CWA REMAINS IN A WARM AND MOIST SLY FLOW
ATTM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. SLY FLOW AT 1000 MB ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KT BUT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-15 KT AFTER 06Z. ANY PROSPECTS FOR A SHOWER
OVER SE GA COMING TO A QUICK END WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER
SUPPORT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN WX IMPACT TONIGHT IS THE FOG AND FOG PRODUCT ALREADY
SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DENSE SEA FOG FROM W OF TLH
TO GILCHRIST COUNTY INTO WRN MARION. MAY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND MAY
INCLUDE A COUPLE COUNTIES IN SE GA AS THE FOG ROLLS IN OVERNIGHT.
NRN AND ERN EXTENT OF THIS FOG MAY MAKE IT TO THE HIGHWAY 301 BY
12Z TUE. WILL BEEF UP WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS AS WELL.

.AVIATION...MAY NEED TO ADJUST TAFS FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER START TO
FOG AT E COAST SITES AND LIKELY EARLIER START AT KGNV.

.MARINE...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM LATE TUE TO EARLY FRI ON THE 4PM ISSUANCE. MID
SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO HOIST A SHORTER DURATION ADVISORY FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL ALSO WORD FOG AS LATE IN THE 1ST PERIOD
AND EARLY IN THE 2ND PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE TUE MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  79  60  65 /  10  10  40  60
SSI  59  75  59  70 /  10  10  30  60
JAX  57  82  59  73 /  10  10  20  60
SGJ  60  80  63  74 /  10  10  20  50
GNV  55  82  60  72 /  10  10  20  60
OCF  55  83  60  75 /  10  10  20  60

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUE TO 4 AM FRI FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SHASHY/CARROLL/KEEGAN